Trust science, not morons

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The Risks – Know Them – Avoid Them

By Erin S. Bromage, Ph.D.,  Associate Professor of Biology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth. 

It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That’s what’s going to happen with a lockdown.

As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I’ve said before, if you don’t solve the biology, the economy won’t recover.

There are very few states that have demonstrated a sustained decline in numbers of new infections. Indeed, as of May 3rd the majority are still increasing and reopening. As a simple example of the USA trend, when you take out the data from New York and just look at the rest of the USA, daily case numbers are increasing. Bottom line: the only reason the total USA new case numbers look flat right now is because the New York City epidemic was so large and now it is being contained.

So throughout most of the country we are going to add fuel to the viral fire by reopening. It’s going to happen if I like it or not, so my goal here is to try to guide you away from situations of high risk.

Where are people getting sick?

We know most people get infected in their own home. A household member contracts the virus in the community and brings it into the house where sustained contact between household members leads to infection. Continue reading “The Risks – Know Them – Avoid Them”

Tens of Thousands in France March Against Climate Change 

(PARIS) — More than 18,000 people marched Saturday in Paris as part of an international mobilization to show popular support for urgent measures to combat climate change in advance of a San Francisco summit.Crowds overflowed a plaza in front of City Hall before marching east to the Place de la Republique, carrying an urgent message that it’s up to the public to put global warming at the top of the political agenda.

“Planet in Danger,” read some banners.Activists around the world encouraged “Rise for Climate” protests before the summit taking place Sept.12-Sept. 14. California’s governor proposed the event after President Donald Trump vowed to pull the U.S. out of a landmark 2015 climate accord.The international agreement was negotiated in France, and the French capital’s march was more successful than ones held Saturday in other French cities or elsewhere in Europe [ . . . ]

Continue at TIME: Tens of Thousands in France March Against Climate Change | Time

Worst of heatwave yet to come as France braces for ‘terrible’ Tuesday

France’s heatwave is set to continue, with the hottest weather yet expected on Monday and Tuesday across the country.On Monday, temperatures could soar up to around 40C according to France’s national weather agency Météo France. France’s met office has issued heatwave weather warnings for 67 departments out of 101 in France – a record first reached in June last year – and has warned against storms in the country’s southeast in the afternoon, Le Parisien reported.

“The heatwave continues tomorrow Monday, with very high temperatures which will be difficult to bear. Be careful of storms on the southeast in the afternoon with a risk of hail,” the weather forecaster wrote on Twitter.

On Monday, the hottest parts of France will be in the southwestern regions, with temperatures in some cities reaching 36C in Toulouse and 37C in Bordeaux.

On Tuesday, Paris and the country’s northeast and centre will be the most affected by the heat, with Lyon and Paris sweltering under 36C.

Meteorologist Guillaume Séchet, creator of the site meteo-paris.com, is referring to Tuesday as a “terrible day with 38-39C in Ile-de-France and highs of 40C around Bourges and Auxerre”.

There will be a gradual decline in temperatures in the south-east of France on Tuesday but it will remain very hot.

Fortunately, the mercury is expected to drop considerably by Wednesday and Thursday.

“All of a sudden, we will lose 10C in 24 hours in the North and return to a more normal 23 to 24 C in the second half of the week,” Guillaume Séchet told Le Parisien.

France’s scorching weather is also causing air pollution levels to soar.

On Monday, traffic is being reduced in both Lyon and Paris to cut down on the smog with cars belonging to the most polluting category of vehicles being banned.

Similar measures were taken for three days in Paris in July.

Speed limits have also been lowered throughout the Ile de France region around Paris and in the east of the country.

Like much of Europe, France has been hit by a heatwave over the past week – which is already turning into the third hottest since temperatures have been recorded.

Last week, four nuclear reactors were forced to close in order to avoid raising the temperature of rivers whose water is used to cool reactors and then returned.

On Saturday, the southern town of Béziers in the Hérault department reached 41.3C. It was the hottest day in France since a deadly heatwave in 2003, that killed thousands of elderly people.

Source: Worst of heatwave yet to come as France braces for ‘terrible’ Tuesday – The Local

Jacques Cousteau, an Example for Lovers of the Oceans

Mexico City.- Jacques-Yves Cousteau had several passions: underwater life, exploration, film and photography, disciplines in which he scored numerous successes, many of which he inherited for posterity in his approximately 120 documentaries that, currently, they are subject of study.

Born on June 11, 1910 in Saint-André-de-Cubzac, France, the most important explorer and underwater researcher of the 20th century made contributions in the fields of science and the arts that today are subjects of forced analysis in schools of Cinema and Marine Photography throughout the world.According to his most severe biographers, from his childhood he became accustomed to travel because his father, Daniel Cousteau, constantly toured the world for work reasons, as he served as secretary of the American billionaire Eugene Higgins.

Jacques was a very sick child, probably because of the continuous change of eating habits and environments, in addition to the constant coming and going in different countries.His parents attributed the deteriorated health of the boy to the tight schedule of the continuous trips; for that reason, with the idea and the hope of changing his life, he was enrolled in a French boarding school where he was not a good student although he approved his courses. Continue reading “Jacques Cousteau, an Example for Lovers of the Oceans”